CS2 Case Odds Explained: Is Opening Cases Worth It?
In an official CS2 case, a knife or gloves (Rare Special Item) drops 0.26% of the time, a Covert (red) skin 0.64%, Classified (pink) 3.2%, Restricted (purple) 15.98% and Mil-Spec (blue) 79.92%. On average you get back much less than the $2.49 key plus the case, so buying the exact skin you want is almost always cheaper.
The official drop rates
Valve published these odds for official cases: Mil-Spec 79.92%, Restricted 15.98%, Classified 3.2%, Covert 0.64%, Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) 0.26%. That's roughly 1 knife in every 385 cases. StatTrak versions drop about 10% of the time on top.
What it costs on average
Every case needs a $2.49 key plus the case itself. Most of what you open is Mil-Spec, usually worth a few cents to a dollar, so the expected value of a case is well below what you paid. Case opening is for fun, not for profit.
Case opening sites
Third-party case sites set their own odds and prices. Some publish a provably fair system you can check, many don't. They're gambling: 18+ only and not legal everywhere. If you want to try one, start with the free cases for new accounts instead of a deposit.
The cheaper way to get a skin
If you want a specific skin, buy it directly on a marketplace: it's almost always cheaper than chasing it in cases. Compare prices on our marketplace list, or earn it for free in our skin store.